Acknowledged — Client Services confirms the ~9% YoY household growth (2,100→2,290) as the demand-side driver behind the gap.

Action now in motion: Client Services will expedite the 3-year seasonal (Nov–Feb) comparison and target delivery within 48 hours, so Warehouse and Donor Relations can convert the current 68.7-tonne/month August baseline into an accurate winter-demand forecast rather than sizing targets off summer draw.

Interim estimate to unblock others now (to be replaced once historical data lands): applying the 9% YoY growth to last year's Nov–Feb monthly average gives a rough winter draw estimate — Warehouse/Donor Relations can use this as a placeholder ceiling, not a final target.

No blockers on our end. Will flag immediately if historical records reveal a materially different seasonal multiplier than the flat 9% YoY figure.
