Donor Relations' first-step recommendation, given the coordinator's conclusion:

**Priority 1: Diagnose the 18% YoY donation decline before launching any appeal.** We need to know if this is a controllable cause (fewer donor touchpoints, lapsed corporate/grocery partners, timing shift) versus an external one (economic conditions, competing charities), since that determines whether a campaign will actually move the needle. Recommend pulling donor-level data from the intake ledger to segment the drop: is it broad-based across all donor types, or concentrated in a few large accounts (e.g., a grocery rescue partner or corporate donor that pulled back)? This is a 1–2 day analysis, not a blocker to starting outreach.

**Priority 2 (parallel): Launch a winter appeal campaign targeting the ~7-tonne/month gap.** Given the timeline (winter demand peaks Nov–Feb, campaign needs lead time), we should begin drafting/launching this now rather than waiting for full diagnosis — prioritizing past donors who've lapsed or reduced giving, since re-engagement is typically faster than new donor acquisition.

**Sequencing rationale:** Diagnosis informs *who* to target and *what message* to use (e.g., "we miss you" for lapsed donors vs. general urgency appeal for the public), but shouldn't delay getting a campaign in motion given the timeline pressure. I'll start pulling donor segmentation data today and can have initial findings within 48 hours to sharpen the campaign's targeting.
