# What you asked

1. "I run client services. Are we OK for winter?"
2. "Given the coordinator's conclusion, what should client services do first?"

# What I found

Households served rose from 2,100 last August to 2,290 this August — about a 9% increase. Each household receives roughly 30 kg of food per month. I checked this against client sign-in and distribution records.

# What the coordinator concluded

Riverbend remains **NOT OK for winter**. Key points:

- Runway is much shorter than assumed — Warehouse's burn-down math (41 tonnes ÷ 68.7 tonnes/month) puts the food bank at **~18 days to zero stock**, not "sometime this winter." That's now the operative deadline.
- Northline's Dec 15 transport contract expiration is the top logistics risk; outreach is proceeding this week with a written response targeted for mid-October.
- Donor Relations is running diagnosis and appeal launch in parallel rather than sequentially.
- **Client Services' 3-year seasonal (Nov–Feb) comparison is called out as critical and should be expedited** — Warehouse and Donor Relations both need it to size their winter targets correctly, since the current 68.7-tonne/month figure is only an August baseline, not a winter forecast.
- Warehouse is to begin stopgap rationing/prioritization planning now, in parallel, not waiting on sourcing/donations to close the gap first.
- Coordinator will reconvene mid-October once Northline's answer, donor diagnosis, and the seasonal projection are all in.

# Answer to your latest question: what should client services do first?

**Expedite the 3-year seasonal (Nov–Feb) demand comparison — that's the explicit top priority, and it's now gating other teams' work.**

Concretely, first steps:

1. Pull Nov–Feb household counts and distribution volumes for the last 3 years (using the same client sign-in/distribution records basis you just validated for the August numbers).
2. Calculate the seasonal multiplier — how much winter demand typically exceeds the August baseline — so Warehouse and Donor Relations can convert the 68.7-tonne/month August figure into an actual winter monthly target instead of using it as a stand-in.
3. Apply the confirmed 9% YoY household growth to that seasonal baseline to project this winter's likely demand, not just repeat last year's raw numbers.
4. Deliver this fast — the coordinator is treating your turnaround speed as the bottleneck, since both Warehouse's stopgap/rationing sizing and Donor Relations' appeal targets are waiting on it, with a mid-October reconvene deadline.

Everything else (rationing input, appeal messaging, etc.) should follow once this projection is in their hands — but producing it is the immediate action for your team.
