# Conclusion: Riverbend Food Bank is NOT currently on track to be OK for winter

**Bottom line:** Based on the combined data, we have a supply-demand gap that is widening, plus an operational gap in cold-chain logistics — both need to be addressed before winter demand peaks (typically Nov–Feb).

**Supporting facts:**

1. **Stock is thin relative to current demand.** Warehouse holds 41 tonnes on hand. At the current distribution rate (2,290 households × ~30 kg/month ≈ 68.7 tonnes/month), on-hand stock covers roughly 60% of a *single* month's need — with no built-in buffer for the 4-month winter stretch.

2. **Donations are shrinking while demand is growing — in opposite directions.** August donations (62 tonnes) are down 18% YoY, while households served are up 9% YoY. That's a double squeeze: less coming in, more going out. Even August's donation total (62 tonnes) fell short of what's needed to fully replenish that month's ~68.7-tonne draw.

3. **Winter typically increases demand further,** meaning the 2,290-household baseline (not last year's 2,100) understates what October–February will actually require. The gap identified above will likely widen, not hold steady.

4. **A logistics failure point compounds the risk.** The refrigerated truck contract with Northline Transport expires December 15 — mid-winter, before the season is over. Even if enough food is sourced, there's currently no confirmed plan to move it via cold chain after that date.

**Net assessment:** Without intervention, the food bank is at risk of running short on inventory during peak winter months, and even available inventory could be stranded by a transport gap starting mid-December. This is a "not OK, action required" status — not a crisis today, but a clear trajectory toward one if unaddressed.

**Immediate priorities for the team:**
- Warehouse/Sourcing: Identify additional supply sources or emergency procurement to close the ~7-tonne/month gap at current demand, before layering on winter's typical increase.
- Donor Relations: Investigate the cause of the 18% donation decline and consider a winter appeal campaign to reverse the trend.
- Client Services: Confirm whether the 9% growth trend is expected to continue/accelerate into Nov–Feb so sourcing targets can be set accurately.
- Logistics: Begin renewal or replacement negotiations with Northline Transport (or an alternative carrier) now, well ahead of the December 15 expiration, to avoid a mid-winter cold-chain gap.
