Evidentiality Framework for AI
Download .md

Case study

South Africa’s Draft AI Policy: Fake Sources in the Plan for AI

In April 2026, South Africa published its draft national policy on artificial intelligence for comment. Some of the research it cited had never been published. The minister withdrew it 16 days later.

What are the labels? The Evidentiality Framework asks an AI to mark each claim it writes: (g) generated, its own work; (u) given, passed to it by someone else; or (m) checked against a named source. The marks stay on a claim while people work with it. How the labels work.


What Happened


Follow the Claim

This is an illustration of how the labels would have worked, not a test. It only holds if the conditions under “What Would Have Had to Be True” held.

Follow one reference: from a draft to a national policy

Key: as it happened, the type gets bigger as the claim sounds more certain. With labels: red (g) generated: written by the AI; green (u) given: passed on, with who said it; blue (m) checked against a named source.

As it happenedWith labels
Early 2026 · AI tool (suspected) → policy drafters
As it happenedA reference to a journal article that was never publishedLooks like research. (The exact wording wasn’t reprinted in sources we could read.)
With labels(g)An article in the South African Journal of Philosophy(/g)If an AI tool wrote it and used the labels: marked as the AI’s.
Early 2026 · Drafters → the draft policy
As it happenedListed in the policy’s referencesNow it looks like the research behind a national policy.
With labels(u)An article in the South African Journal of Philosophy(/u: AI tool, unconfirmed)Passed on with where it came from, and that nobody has opened it.
Before March 2026 · The check
As it happenedNobody looked it upThe references were never opened.
With labels(m)The cited articles never appeared(/m: journal editors, as reported by TechCentral, checked 3 Oct 2026)This check could be made at the time. We name the source that confirmed it later.
March–April 2026 · Cabinet → the public
As it happenedApproved and published as the national draftNow it’s the country’s official draft.
With labelsLeft out. The check found nothing, so the claim never reaches the finished document.Finished documents carry no labels. They only carry claims that passed the check.

The articles never appeared. The reference is described, not quoted, because the sources we could read didn’t reprint it.


How the Labels Could Have Helped


What Would Have Had to Be True

The four conditions every case shares: the AI tool used the labels; it labelled its own work correctly (the weakest link: in our tests, AI sometimes mislabels its own work); the label stayed on when the text was copied; and someone owned a rule that unchecked claims don’t go further. In this case:


What Already Existed


What the Labels Wouldn’t Have Caught


Further Reading

Also listed in the AI Incident Database (#1467).

Next: All case studies · How the labels work